Assessment of a Comparative Bayesian-Enhanced Population-Based Decision Model for COVID-19 Critical Care Prediction in the Dominican Republic Social Security Affiliates

Introduction: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been a major health concern worldwide. This study aims to develop a Bayesian model to predict critical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Methods: Sensitivity and specificity were obtained from previous meta-analysis studies. The complex vulnerability index (IVC-COV2 index for its abbreviation in Spanish) was used to set the pretest probability. Likelihood ratios were integrated into a Fagan nomogram for posttest probabilities, and IVC-COV2 + National Early Warning Score (NEWS) values and CURB-65 scores were generated. Absolute and relative diagnostic gains (RDGs) were calculated based on pretest and posttest differences. Results: The IVC-COV2 index was derived from a population of 1,055,746 individuals and was based on mortality in high-risk (71.97%), intermediate-risk (26.11%), and low-risk (1.91%) groups. The integration of models in which IVC-COV2 intermediate + NEWS ≥ 5 and CURB-65 \u3e 2 led to a number needed to (NNT) diagnose that was slightly improved in the CURB-65 model (2 vs. 3). A comparison of diagnostic gains revealed that neither the positive likelihood ratio (P = 0.62) nor the negative likelihood ratio (P = 0.95) differed significantly between the IVC-COV2 NEWS model and the CURB-65 model. Conclusion: According to the proposed mathematical model, the combination of the IVC-COV2 intermediate score and NEWS or CURB-65 score yields superior results and a greater predictive value for the severity of illness. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based/mathematical model developed for use in COVID-19 critical care decision-making

Activation of the Unfolded Protein Response (UPR) Is Associated with Cholangiocellular Injury, Fibrosis and Carcinogenesis in an Experimental Model of Fibropolycystic Liver Disease

Fibropolycystic liver disease is characterized by hyperproliferation of the biliary epithelium and the formation of multiple dilated cysts, a process associated with unfolded protein response (UPR). In the present study, we aimed to understand the mechanisms of cyst formation and UPR activation in hepatocytic c-Jun N-terminal kinase 1/2 (Jnk1/2) knockout mice. Floxed JNK1/2 (Jnkf/f) and Jnk∆hepa animals were sacrificed at different time points during progression of liver disease. Histological examination of specimens evidenced the presence of collagen fiber deposition, increased α-smooth muscle actin (αSMA), infiltration of CD45, CD11b and F4/80 cells and proinflammatory cytokines (Tnf, Tgfβ1) and liver injury (e.g., ALT, apoptosis and Ki67-positive cells) in Jnk∆hepa compared with Jnkf/f livers from 32 weeks of age. This was associated with activation of effectors of the UPR, including BiP/GRP78, CHOP and spliced XBP1. Tunicamycin (TM) challenge strongly induced ER stress and fibrosis in Jnk∆hepa animals compared with Jnkf/f littermates. Finally, thioacetamide (TAA) administration to Jnk∆hepa mice induced UPR activation, peribiliary fibrosis, liver injury and markers of biliary proliferation and cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Orthoallografts of DEN/CCl4-treated Jnk∆hepa liver tissue triggered malignant CCA. Altogether, these results suggest that activation of the UPR in conjunction with fibrogenesis might trigger hepatic cystogenesis and early stages of CCA

Pilot multi-omic analysis of human bile from benign and malignant biliary strictures: a machine-learning approach

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) and pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) may lead to the development of extrahepatic obstructive cholestasis. However, biliary stenoses can also be caused by benign conditions, and the identification of their etiology still remains a clinical challenge. We performed metabolomic and proteomic analyses of bile from patients with benign (n = 36) and malignant conditions, CCA (n = 36) or PDAC (n = 57), undergoing endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography with the aim of characterizing bile composition in biliopancreatic disease and identifying biomarkers for the differential diagnosis of biliary strictures. Comprehensive analyses of lipids, bile acids and small molecules were carried out using mass spectrometry (MS) and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-NMR) in all patients. MS analysis of bile proteome was performed in five patients per group. We implemented artificial intelligence tools for the selection of biomarkers and algorithms with predictive capacity. Our machine-learning pipeline included the generation of synthetic data with properties of real data, the selection of potential biomarkers (metabolites or proteins) and their analysis with neural networks (NN). Selected biomarkers were then validated with real data. We identified panels of lipids (n = 10) and proteins (n = 5) that when analyzed with NN algorithms discriminated between patients with and without cancer with an unprecedented accuracy.This research was funded by: Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) co-financed by Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) Una manera de hacer Europa, grant numbers: PI16/01126 (M.A.A.), PI19/00819 (M.J.M. and J.J.G.M.), PI15/01132, PI18/01075 and Miguel Servet Program CON14/00129 (J.M.B.); Fundación Científica de la Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer (AECC Scientific Foundation), grant name: Rare Cancers 2017 (J.M.U., M.L.M., J.M.B., M.J.M., R.I.R.M., M.G.F.-B., C.B., M.A.A.); Gobierno de Navarra Salud, grant number 58/17 (J.M.U., M.A.A.); La Caixa Foundation, grant name: HEPACARE (C.B., M.A.A.); AMMF The Cholangiocarcinoma Charity, UK, grant number: 2018/117 (F.J.C. and M.A.A.); PSC Partners US, PSC Supports UK, grant number 06119JB (J.M.B.); Horizon 2020 (H2020) ESCALON project, grant number H2020-SC1-BHC-2018–2020 (J.M.B.); BIOEF (Basque Foundation for Innovation and Health Research: EiTB Maratoia, grant numbers BIO15/CA/016/BD (J.M.B.) and BIO15/CA/011 (M.A.A.). Department of Health of the Basque Country, grant number 2017111010 (J.M.B.). La Caixa Foundation, grant number: LCF/PR/HP17/52190004 (M.L.M.), Mineco-Feder, grant number SAF2017-87301-R (M.L.M.), Fundación BBVA grant name: Ayudas a Equipos de Investigación Científica Umbrella 2018 (M.L.M.). MCIU, grant number: Severo Ochoa Excellence Accreditation SEV-2016-0644 (M.L.M.). Part of the equipment used in this work was co-funded by the Generalitat Valenciana and European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) funds (PO FEDER of Comunitat Valenciana 2014–2020). Gobierno de Navarra fellowship to L.C. (Leticia Colyn); AECC post-doctoral fellowship to M.A.; Ramón y Cajal Program contracts RYC-2014-15242 and RYC2018-024475-1 to F.J.C. and M.G.F.-B., respectively. The generous support from: Fundación Eugenio Rodríguez Pascual, Fundación Echébano, Fundación Mario Losantos, Fundación M Torres and Mr. Eduardo Avila are acknowledged. The CNB-CSIC Proteomics Unit belongs to ProteoRed, PRB3-ISCIII, supported by grant PT17/0019/0001 (F.J.C.). Comunidad de Madrid Grant B2017/BMD-3817 (F.J.C.).Peer reviewe

Epigenetic Mechanisms in Hepatic Stellate Cell Activation During Liver Fibrosis and Carcinogenesis

Liver fibrosis is an essential component of chronic liver disease (CLD) and hepatocarcinogenesis. The fibrotic stroma is a consequence of sustained liver damage combined with exacerbated extracellular matrix (ECM) accumulation. In this context, activation of hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) plays a key role in both initiation and perpetuation of fibrogenesis. These cells suffer profound remodeling of gene expression in this process. This review is focused on the epigenetic alterations participating in the transdifferentiation of HSCs from the quiescent to activated state. Recent advances in the field of DNA methylation and post-translational modifications (PTM) of histones (acetylation and methylation) patterns are discussed here, together with altered expression and activity of epigenetic remodelers. We also consider recent advances in translational approaches, including the use of epigenetic marks as biomarkers and the promising antifibrotic properties of epigenetic drugs that are currently being used in patients

Epigenetic mechanisms in hepatic stellate cell activation during liver fibrosis and carcinogenesis

Liver fibrosis is an essential component of chronic liver disease (CLD) and hepatocarcinogenesis. The fibrotic stroma is a consequence of sustained liver damage combined with exacerbated extracellular matrix (ECM) accumulation. In this context, activation of hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) plays a key role in both initiation and perpetuation of fibrogenesis. These cells suffer profound remodeling of gene expression in this process. This review is focused on the epigenetic alterations participating in the transdifferentiation of HSCs from the quiescent to activated state. Recent advances in the field of DNA methylation and post-translational modifications (PTM) of histones (acetylation and methylation) patterns are discussed here, together with altered expression and activity of epigenetic remodelers. We also consider recent advances in translational approaches, including the use of epigenetic marks as biomarkers and the promising antifibrotic properties of epigenetic drugs that are currently being used in patients

Epigenetics in liver fibrosis: could HDACs be a therapeutic target?

Chronic liver diseases (CLD) represent a worldwide health problem. While CLDs may have diverse etiologies, a common pathogenic denominator is the presence of liver fibrosis. Cirrhosis, the end-stage of CLD, is characterized by extensive fibrosis and is markedly associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. The most important event in hepatic fibrogenesis is the activation of hepatic stellate cells (HSC) following liver injury. Activated HSCs acquire a myofibroblast-like phenotype becoming proliferative, fibrogenic, and contractile cells. While transient activation of HSCs is part of the physiological mechanisms of tissue repair, protracted activation of a wound healing reaction leads to organ fibrosis. The phenotypic changes of activated HSCs involve epigenetic mechanisms mediated by non-coding RNAs (ncRNA) as well as by changes in DNA methylation and histone modifications. During CLD these epigenetic mechanisms become deregulated, with alterations in the expression and activity of epigenetic modulators. Here we provide an overview of the epigenetic alterations involved in fibrogenic HSCs transdifferentiation with particular focus on histones acetylation changes. We also discuss recent studies supporting the promising therapeutic potential of histone deacetylase inhibitors in liver fibrosis

Epigenetics in liver fibrosis: could HDACs be a therapeutic target?

Chronic liver diseases (CLD) represent a worldwide health problem. While CLDs may have diverse etiologies, a common pathogenic denominator is the presence of liver fibrosis. Cirrhosis, the end-stage of CLD, is characterized by extensive fibrosis and is markedly associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. The most important event in hepatic fibrogenesis is the activation of hepatic stellate cells (HSC) following liver injury. Activated HSCs acquire a myofibroblast-like phenotype becoming proliferative, fibrogenic, and contractile cells. While transient activation of HSCs is part of the physiological mechanisms of tissue repair, protracted activation of a wound healing reaction leads to organ fibrosis. The phenotypic changes of activated HSCs involve epigenetic mechanisms mediated by non-coding RNAs (ncRNA) as well as by changes in DNA methylation and histone modifications. During CLD these epigenetic mechanisms become deregulated, with alterations in the expression and activity of epigenetic modulators. Here we provide an overview of the epigenetic alterations involved in fibrogenic HSCs transdifferentiation with particular focus on histones acetylation changes. We also discuss recent studies supporting the promising therapeutic potential of histone deacetylase inhibitors in liver fibrosis